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44 | I NSIGH T • S e p t e m b e r 2 0 14 w w w . i n s i g h t o n b u s i n e s s . c o m S O FAR THIS YEAR, THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC Analysis released four estimates of growth in the U.S. gross domestic product. e first three, which measured first quarter growth, started at 0.1 percent and dropped to -2.9 percent. During this time, the S&P 500 gained 4 percent. e fourth GDP estimate was released on July 30, and the bureau reported an estimate of 4 percent growth in GDP for the second quarter. During this time, the S&P 500 dropped 3.3 percent. As can be seen, markets fell on good GDP numbers and rose on bad GDP numbers. History shows that markets should rise on good economic data and fall on bad. But why is the opposite happening? In short, it's because of the Federal Reserve. e promise of economic stimulus is a powerful influence on market growth. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has repeatedly remarked that if economic health declines significantly, the Fed will step in to increase its stimulus program for the economy. is is important, because evidence shows a high correlation between the S&P 500 and stimulus spending. erefore, if the economy receives stimulus because of bad economic news, investors will expect the S&P 500 to rise in step with stimulus spending. If the economy improves, the Fed will continue to decrease stimulus spending and then the market is free to act on its own accord without any predictability. is month, clearTREND® analyzes the commercial real estate and shipping & logistics sectors along with U.S. economic health. clearTREND's Economic Health Index TM shows its most favorable reading of the year, with 81 percent of U.S. sectors expanding. "Fundamental analysts must be scratching their heads," says Alex Haas, advisor to private clients and retirement plans. "It normally would make no sense that markets would be rising on negative economic data and falling on positive data. However, it has been made clear that stocks will rise as long as there is an expectation for additional stimulus." KEY: = uptrend = downtrend Ticker = trading symbol (individual securities only) Trend Began = date on which current trend was identified Confidence = clearTREND's historic success rate in generating capital gains based on accurate trend identification clearTREND U.S. Economic Health Index: trending i n fo c u s Stimulus has markets producing results contrary to expectations Don't fight the Fed This index measures more than 130 unique U.S. market sectors to determine how many are expanding, stable, or contracting. More than 50% of expanding sectors are healthy, while less than 50% are not. 81% Expanding: 81% Stable: 8% Contracting: 11% Poor Fair Good Excellent Sector Focus: Commercial Real Estate Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence General Growth Properties GGP 2/7/14 70.37% HCP Inc. HCP 1/2/14 75.19% Health Care REIT Inc. HCN 3/24/14 79.05% Prologis Inc. PLD 2/5/14 77.60% Public Storage PSA 4/28/09 74.36% Simon Property Group Inc. SPG 1/14/14 78.10% Ventas Inc. VTR 3/27/14 77.78% Vornado Realty Trust VNO 9/10/13 72.73% Shipping & Logistics Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence Canadian National Railway Company CNI 4/16/14 75.79% Con-Way Inc. CNW 3/31/14 73.93% Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL 11/28/12 81.32% Kirby Corporation KEX 9/11/12 81.13% Southwest Airlines Co. LUV 9/13/13 73.08% Swift Transportation Company SWFT 7/1/14 90.00% Teekay Corporation TK 7/17/12 80.00% Union Pacific Corporation UNP 11/14/13 78.95% Data as of 8/4/2014