Insight on Business

August 2014

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42 | I nsIgh t • A u g u s t 2 0 14 w w w . i n s i g h t o n b u s i n e s s . c o m D espIte the fInal revIsIon of Q1 gDp numbers, this month has been marked by record market highs along with low levels of investor fear. e Bureau of economic analysis put out its third and final gDp estimate, decreasing Q1 economic growth from -1.0% to a whopping -2.9%. other reports provided more insight into the economy, including measurements of weak wages relative to inflation. private sector wages have grown only 1.7% against an inflation rate of 2.1% in the last 12 months. In defiance of these metrics, markets sped ahead with the Dow reaching a record high of 17,000. Indicators have shown that the economy is not meeting growth expectations, which should ultimately have a drag on U.s. markets. Yet, markets are shown to be firmly in "bull" territory, especially since fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen promised to increase stimulus spending if the economy weakens. as a result, investor fear continues its downward trend to reach lows not seen since before the great recession. e cleartrenD® economic health Index tM is now showing its most favorable reading of the year, with 80% of U.s. sectors expanding. "With news headlines noting all-time market highs, investor optimism has been as strong as it has been for several years," says alex haas, advisor to private clients and retirement plans. "however, attention being given to the stock market rally has taken focus away from global economic risks, such as rising debt levels and the potential side effects of monetary stimulus." Key: = uptrend = downtrend Ticker = trading symbol (individual securities only) Trend Began = date on which current trend was identified Confidence = clearTREND's historic success rate in generating capital gains based on accurate trend identification clearTREND U.S. Economic Health Index: trending i n fo c u s Markets bullish, fear factor drops despite global risk, rising debt High Speed, Low Drag This index measures more than 130 unique U.S. market sectors to determine how many are expanding, stable, or contracting. More than 50% of expanding sectors are healthy, while less than 50% are not. 80% Expanding: 80% Stable: 15% Contracting: 5% Poor Fair Good Excellent Sector Focus Energy Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE 4/14/14 75.44% Chevron Corporation CVX 4/24/14 79.28% Cloud Peak Energy Inc. CLD 6/13/14 90.00% Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 11/6/13 81.54% Natural Resource Partners LP NRP 5/28/14 76.87% NiSource Inc. NI 12/10/12 78.35% Peabody Energy Corporation BTU 6/24/14 81.56% Suncor Energy Inc. SU 4/11/14 78.83% Engineering & Architecture Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence Chicago Bridge & Iron Company CBI 6/23/14 74.85% D. R. Horton Inc. DHI 4/21/14 75.90% Fluor Corporation FLR 6/20/14 75.21% Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. JEC 6/30/14 76.40% Lennar Corporation LEN 7/2/14 80.15% PulteGroup Inc. PHM 6/25/14 70.86% Quanta Services Inc. PWR 7/4/14 79.58% URS Corporation URS 6/26/14 82.26% Green Bay - Top Employment Sectors Description Trend Began Confidence Banks 6/27/14 86.67% Food Producers 11/20/13 99.00% Gambling 6/30/14 83.33% Health Care Providers 6/10/14 86.84% Insurance 2/24/14 80.77% Paper 11/25/13 80.43% Retail 6/12/14 88.24% Transportation Services 11/1/13 86.08% Utilities 1/17/14 84.52% Data as of 7/7/2014

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