Insight on Business

January 2015

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36 | I NSIGH T • J a n u a r y 2 0 15 w w w . i n s i g h t o n b u s i n e s s . c o m S timulus, zero interest rate policy, Ukraine, Russia, Ebola and ISIS — these are just some of the things that kept markets on edge last year. e major U.S. markets spent most of 2014 gyrating between low-to-high single-digit gains, hitting all-time highs in December aer a turbulent October. We also saw the historic end of the Federal Reserve's controversial stimulus program (at least for now), leading to higher volatility and market uncertainty. While both China and Japan instituted their own stimulus programs during the year, the European Central bank continued to toy with the idea of stimulus of its own. On a positive note for consumers, oil prices dropped more than 40 percent from the year's high, dipping below $60 a barrel for the first time in five years. Consumers have cheered cheaper prices at the pump while large energy companies have begun to scale back on exploration and development projects until prices recover. Despite rising volatility, clearTREND research produced by our firm in Appleton indicates weak, upward trends in small-, mid- and large-cap equities. Our U.S. Economic Health Index™ shows 56 percent of U.S. sectors are still expanding, a slight improvement compared to December, but still weaker than normal. "At e Appleton Group, we believe that 2015 is all about stimulus. If the massive stimulus efforts continue this year, we believe that current market levels are appropriate," says Mark Scheffler, senior portfolio manager and founder of the Appleton Group. "But if the stimulus package does end and interest rates begin to normalize, look out below — stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate are all vulnerable to significant declines. So be watchful and use flexible investment strategies like ours to help you stay on the right side of the market." KEY: = uptrend = downtrend Ticker = trading symbol (individual securities only) Trend Began = date on which current trend was identified Confidence = clearTREND's historic success rate in generating capital gains based on accurate trend identification clearTREND U.S. Economic Health Index: trending i n fo c u s Flexibility will help ride out the market's highs and lows in 2015 An emotional roller coaster This index measures more than 130 unique U.S. market sectors to determine how many are expanding, stable or contracting. More than 50 percent of expanding sectors are healthy, while less than 50 percent are not. 56% Expanding: 56% Neutral: 24% Contracting: 20% Poor Fair Good Excellent Data as of 12/11/2014 Sector Focus: Wellness Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence Avon Products Inc. AVP 9/8/14 76.98% Coty COTY 11/4/14 99.00% Estee Lauder Companies Inc. EL 12/3/14 77.18% Johnson & Johnson JNJ 11/10/14 79.77% Life Time Fitness Inc. LTM 10/1/14 85.06% Procter & Gamble Co. PG 3/25/14 84.55% Regis Corporation RGS 6/20/14 72.88% Steiner Leisure Limited STNR 10/29/14 71.72% Wealth Management Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence Affiliated Managers Group AMG 11/5/14 86.67% Ameriprise Financial Inc. AMP 11/5/14 84.42% BlackRock Inc. BLK 6/6/14 83.02% Franklin Resources Inc. BEN 10/27/14 72.44% Invesco Ltd. IVZ 11/5/14 79.23% KKR & Co. L.P. KKR 11/6/14 78.87% The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation BK 7/30/12 72.81% The Blackstone Group L.P. BX 11/26/14 76.70%

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