Insight on Business

February 2015

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42 | I NSIGH T • F e b r u a r y 2 0 15 w w w . i n s i g h t o n b u s i n e s s . c o m A er last year's tumultuous market run, analysts are still looking for clues that hint at the market's attitude for 2015. So far, one thing is known for certain: e United States is a top performer and the rest of the world is lagging behind. But can the U.S. keep growing while the world stagnates? Let's take a look at the facts: e United States' largest trading partners abroad consist of China, the European Union and Japan, with $1.2 trillion of trade taking place every year. is represents 29 percent of all trade the U.S. has with foreign countries. is makes American companies more reliant than ever on key foreign economies. And in today's world, all countries are increasingly reliant on one another as globalization expands. But China, the Eurozone and Japan are all experiencing significant economic slowdowns. While China and Japan have kicked stimulus spending into high gear, the EU has yet to do so. With last year's collapse in oil prices, most major countries are experiencing deflationary pressure, which is the last thing the U.S. wants to see aer spending more than $12 trillion since 2008 to keep the economy going. At least for the foreseeable future, America's economy is still trending upward. But only time can tell us whether the U.S. can continue to go it alone. To start the year, clearTREND research produced by Appleton Group indicates upward trends in small, mid- and large-cap stocks along with downward trends in foreign emerging markets. clearTREND's U.S. Economic Health Index™ shows 73 percent of U.S. sectors expanding, an improvement over December. "e theme in 2015 continues to be the stimulus, and whether it will continue or not," says Mark Scheffler, senior portfolio manager and founder of Appleton Group. "With more stimulus, the markets and the economy can continue to chug along, but without help it's clear that it could be a real struggle. Get ready!" KEY: = uptrend = downtrend Ticker = trading symbol (individual securities only) Trend Began = date on which current trend was identified Confidence = clearTREND's historic success rate in generating capital gains based on accurate trend identification clearTREND U.S. Economic Health Index: trending i n fo c u s Global slowdown an ever-present threat to growth Can the U.S. go it alone? This index measures more than 130 unique U.S. market sectors to determine how many are expanding, stable or contracting. More than 50 percent of expanding sectors are healthy, while less than 50 percent are not. 73% Expanding: 73% Neutral: 11% Contracting: 16% Poor Fair Good Excellent Data as of 1/8/2015 Sector Focus: Commercial Construction Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence AECOM Technology Corporation ACM 12/23/14 77.27% Chicago Bridge & Iron Company CBI 12/31/14 74.12% EMCOR Group Inc. EME 1/8/15 76.09% Fluor Corporation FLR 12/1/14 73.33% Graña y Montero GRAM 9/9/14 81.82% Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. JEC 1/8/15 74.59% KBR Inc. KBR 12/19/14 75.82% MasTec Inc. MTZ 12/30/14 77.40% Community-Giving Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence Alcoa Inc. AA 11/19/14 77.72% Bank of America Corporation BAC 8/8/14 73.83% Dow Chemical Co. DOW 12/15/14 77.45% Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS 6/9/14 80.66% Kroger Co. KR 9/12/12 77.78% MetLife Inc. MET 11/6/14 78.26% Safeway Inc. SWY 10/28/14 74.29% Target Corporation TGT 8/20/14 73.64%

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