Insight on Business

December 2014

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36 | I NSIGH T • D e c e m b e r 2 0 14 w w w . i n s i g h t o n b u s i n e s s . c o m S ince the Federal Open Market Committee solidified plans to end quantitative easing in October, bears have been out in full force warning investors of impending doom. Well, their prophecies seemed to come true in early October, at least for a while. On Sept. 18, the S&P 500 broke records again, topping out at 2,011 points with a total gain of 8.8 percent for the year. en, as the ending date for stimulus spending approached, the S&P 500 dipped 9.8 percent by Oct. 15, 0.2 percent shy of a correction. Bears patted themselves on the back while lauding the market drop. Since then, the S&P 500 has erased this "correction" and has broken yet another record, reaching an all-time high of 2,039 points. What happened? To start, the U.S. economy is a beacon of light in a stagnating world economy. Despite sabre rattling from Russia, economic sanctions and the slowdown of the Chinese economy, the U.S. has held up comparatively well. U.S. GDP grew more than 3.5 percent in the third quarter, while growth in the Eurozone stagnated at a mere 0.3 percent. is resilience has resonated with investors, pushing the markets back to mid-September levels. However, analysts cite concern for an overvalued market along with the rise of jobless claims. e price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently at 16, well above its long-term average of 14.8. People without jobs rose by 12,000, indicating a larger number of layoffs. is month's clearTREND U.S. Economic Health Index™ shows that only 52 percent of U.S. sectors are expanding, the lowest rate of expansion in more than two years. "Investors need to remember that the market is not the economy," says Mark Scheffler, founder of e Appleton Group. "For years, we've heard warnings about the massive size of the stimulus and the national debt. But based on how the markets have responded in the past when stimulus has been removed, we should be much more afraid of the end of stimulus." KEY: = uptrend = downtrend Ticker = trading symbol (individual securities only) Trend Began = date on which current trend was identified Confidence = clearTREND's historic success rate in generating capital gains based on accurate trend identification clearTREND U.S. Economic Health Index: trending i n fo c u s Indexes bounce back from bear market predictions Correction? What correction? This index measures more than 130 unique U.S. market sectors to determine how many are expanding, stable, or contracting. More than 50 percent of expanding sectors are healthy, while less than 50 percent are not. 52% Expanding: 52% Neutral: 16% Contracting: 32% Poor Fair Good Excellent Data as of 11/12/2014 Sector Focus: Business Services Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence Alliance Data Systems Corporation ADS 11/11/14 76.99% Equifax Inc. EFX 10/15/13 79.03% Fleetcor Technologies Inc. FLT 5/15/14 92.86% IHS Inc. IHS 11/6/14 92.00% Iron Mountain Inc. IRM 4/21/14 77.78% McGraw Hill Financial Inc. MHFI 9/25/14 79.25% Moody's Corporation MCO 3/7/13 83.33% Nielsen Holdings N.V. NLSN 11/4/14 87.88% Financing for small businesses Description Ticker Trend Began Confidence Associated Banc - Corp ASBC 10/27/14 77.54% Baraboo Bancorp Inc. BAOB 8/7/14 82.76% Baylake Corp Cmn BYLK 10/2/14 83.38% Citizens Community Bancorp Inc. CZWI 12/17/12 76.64% Denmark Bankshares I DMKBA 3/28/12 99.00% First Business Financial Services Inc. FBIZ 10/15/14 78.95% Nicolet NCBS 10/15/14 99.00% PSB Holdings Inc. PSBQ 7/17/14 85.03%

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