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w w w . i n s i g h t o n b u s i n e s s . c o m M a y 2 0 2 0 • I NSIGH T | 27 w w w . i n s i g h t o n b u s i n e s s . c o m M a y 2 0 2 0 • I NSIGH T | 27 As businesses seek funds to remain afloat, Schneider and other bankers remain busy processing applications for the Paycheck Protection Program, which is part of the $2 trillion CARES Act. rough the PPP, businesses with fewer than 500 workers can receive cash-flow assistance through 100 percent federally guaranteed loans to employers who maintain their payroll during the crisis. "I am sure there will be more funding coming since what's in the CARES Act is not enough," he says. e original CARES funding for businesses ran out April 16 and, as of press time, Congress was working on another stimulus package, which would inject additional money into the PPP. Despite the federal government pouring cash into businesses and unemployment programs, don't expect the economic growth from previous quarters to return immediately, says David Fuller, an associate professor in economics with UW-Oshkosh. e shock caused by COVID-19 has jostled around segments of the economy. For example, he says while restaurants have been hit hard, grocery stores and delivery services have grown. "(e shock) moves resources around. It will take some time aer the Safer at Home orders are lied for these resources to shi back," Fuller says. "Firms can expect some bumps in the road trying to get back up to full speed." Marc Schaffer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Analysis and an associate economics professor at St. Norbert College, says the full weight of the economic upheaval will remain unknown for months. "e second quarter started April 1, and we won't have the GDP for the quarter until July. We'll see a little bit of the effect in the first quarter results since the stay-at-home orders began going into place in March," he says. Once stay-at-home restrictions are lied, Schaffer says to expect slow, gradual economic growth. "e uncertainty factor is going to drive the recovery. People and businesses may be slow to begin spending again just in case the virus returns and we go back to another (economic) shutdown," he says. "Until the health side of this is resolved and there's more certainty, that's when the economy will truly begin to come back." Most manufacturers in the region have been deemed essential to the supply chain, Franz says, and the diversity of sectors in Northeast Wisconsin helps insulate the region against instability. Papermakers, food manufacturers, the defense industry and its suppliers, and the packaging industry, for example, all will keep running, she says. Beyond the most basic question of what's an essential business, manufacturers have had to find ways to keep workers safe, address concerns about potential downsizing, and in some cases at the opposite end of the spectrum, ramp up to meet demand. at's the case at Lakeside Foods in Manitowoc, which produces canned and frozen vegetables. Anne Smith, director of communications for the company, says Lakeside recognized the importance of its role as a food provider early in the outbreak, and teams have been working overtime to fulfill the influx of orders. Smith says the company has seen the greatest demand for long-shelf- life products such as canned vegetables and dried beans. Delivering those items to people nationwide remains the company's top priority, she says. In addition to having the highest level of food safety certification from the Food and Drug Administration, Lakeside is following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Occupational Safety and Health Administration guidelines to keep employees safe. "e overriding culture at Lakeside is one of an agricultural mentality where everyone pulls together to help out when needs arise. is is obviously one of those times, and our employees are doing just that. We're proud of our Lakeside team," Smith says. Food that's produced needs packaging, so that means companies such as Amcor and Menasha Corp. continue to go strong, Franz says. Georgia-Pacific Corp. continues to produce toilet paper 24/7, and Kimberly-Clark Corp. said it's taken steps to accelerate the manufacturing of its essential products and reallocate inventory to provide greater access to consumers. "In regards to our manufacturing industry, I'm very bullish on the outlook for these companies," Franz says. As of press time, the state's Safer at Home order was extended through May 26. A way forward One of the most frustrating challenges with COVID-19 is uncertainty around when businesses will be able to resume normal operations. Tim Schneider, New North Inc. co-chair and CEO of Investors Community Bank in Manitowoc, says the crisis is like nothing he's ever seen before, including the Great Recession. "is situation has a more widespread impact and is affecting more businesses, but we're hoping it will be a shorter rebound" since it's caused by an outside actor — the virus — versus something fundamentally wrong in the economy, he says. Most manufacturing operations, including food production, have been deemed essential businesses and continue to operate. Manitowoc- based Lakeside Foods is working overtime to keep up with rising consumer demand for products such as dried beans and canned and frozen vegetables. David Fuller Marc Schaffer C O U R T E S Y L A K E S I D E F O O D S Tim Schneider "is situation has a more widespread impact (than the Great Recession) and is affecting more businesses, but we're hoping it will be a shorter rebound."